Real World Productivity Gains

Debate over actual productivity multipliers from AI tools, Anthropic's 2-3x claims, pareto distribution of benefits across engineers

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The reported ability of small teams to ship millions of lines of code using agentic tools has sparked a fierce debate over whether high-volume metrics like PR frequency represent genuine innovation or merely "bloated" technical debt. While some proponents argue that a 1/10th reduction in development time is an undeniable business win, others observe that these gains are Pareto-distributed, favoring "10x engineers" who invest in building sophisticated internal "harnesses" rather than relying on raw prompts. Skeptics remain unconvinced that this velocity translates to better products, noting that despite faster cycles, many major software applications feel increasingly "shitty" or over-engineered. Ultimately, this shift forces a bittersweet transition for developers, as the traditional craftsmanship of hand-coding is replaced by the high-speed orchestration of AI agents, trading personal creative satisfaction for sheer throughput.

20 comments tagged with this topic

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> We had weeks to ship what ended up being a million lines of code... Five months later, the repository contains on the order of a million lines of code across application logic, infrastructure, tooling, documentation, and internal developer utilities. Over that period, roughly 1,500 pull requests have been opened and merged with a small team of just three engineers driving Codex. This translates to an average throughput of 3.5 PRs per engineer per day, and surprisingly the throughput has increased as the team has grown to now seven engineers. Importantly, this wasn’t output for output’s sake: the product has been used by hundreds of users internally, including daily internal power users. That's an insane level of throughput. What's a good baseline? Prior to agentic coding, whats the typical number of PRs engineers were expected to push? Maybe a 2-10? Do people feel the software has gotten better in the last 6 months? The number of engs is prob the same so we should expect maybe 5x faster cycle in major software apps, but I don't see it. The AI apps do change very fast but given its a very new field, I'd expect as much. But outside of that, I don't see it.
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Feels like the active discovery going on is trying to understand what is computer vs what is AI, for every product. Agents help a ton with the discovery, but the act of building a product needs a deeper level of thought and validation to make it actually better than what came before. So IMO what you see is people still learning what needs to be understood and crafted first hand to make a product better (including economics) We’ll get there if more of us try
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The average efficiency improvement is closer to something like 2-3x per Anthropic’s numbers and this is only the rate at which software can advance. Do you expect to notice if 12 months of software engineering on a project you’re following gets done in 6 months? I suspect not. The root cause is that the acceleration is pareto distributed so the modern engineering team at the moment looks like one 10x engineer, one 5x engineer, and the rest are approximately 1.5x engineers.
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>GitHub, Spotify, Google maps (just to name a few), have gotten noticeably shittier in recent times. What if AI lets you create new versions of those tools, but without the enshitification? I say that being in the "soaking" stage of using AI to rebuild a shitty software project in 70KLOC over about 2 weeks of spare time, so this may not be as theoretical as you might think.
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It is likely better because AI agents make access to domain knowledge easier. However, I would wager that the problem is people don’t remember the code well. The problems are going to be long-term as the pace of change increases. If you think about it, successful products rely on designing well-thought-out experiences, customer discovery (see all the Forward-Deployed Enginneer job listings at OpenAI) so the code velocity somewhat becomes irrelevant. If you’re solving the right problem and you’ve got a good team then competitive advantage comes from somewhere OUTSIDE of code velocity. The more important question I think is does faster code yield more value long-term? At the moment, it’s like yeah we do 3.5 pull requests per day. I’m thinking, great, good for you. You could also combine three pull requests into one and then you’re doing 1 per day. This is quantitative data that doesn’t really mean anything tangible.
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Your hostile tone is unfortunate, especially since my post was actually friendly. I was just trying to point why it is very likely the OP won't give you what you're asking so you're not left confused if he ends up ghosting you. Many people use the term harness to refer to the agent coding software (eg. Opencode, Claude Code...), i use this term more broadly to refer to the environment (set of skills, system prompts, constraints, memory, hooks etc...). What the OP is referring to is not just one giant skill. It's usually a comprehensive ecosystem of skills, bespoke tools to make certain agent tasks deterministic (eg localization), and so on. I've seen someone post Github repos in this thread, these can be very useful especially if you use the same tech stack, but you won't reach the level of productivity reported by successful teams unless you invest substantial time to build your own harness. But the way to do so is to do it progressively : start with something simple to address the need you have on day 1 . And then, turn recurring prompts into skills, turn recurring coding patterns and coding style recommendations into guidelines, turn repetivive tasks for which the LLM tends to build a python script that it occasionally gets wrong into a deterministic tool documented in a skill etc... And after a couple of days, weeks, and months, you'll have a very dependable harness giving you optimal productivity, without needing to invest weeks of work upfront or take the fun out of agent-assisted coding. Hope this helps.
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It’s not a self coding machine. There is human in the loop, they even added MORE engineers to the team of this project! 7 engineers should be able to collaborate with the AI to find good solutions to problems.
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Lines of code has always been a terrible metric. But all else being equal it is a measure. If all else is not equal, which is usually the case, then it's not. A lot of the focus has been on AI recently. Three years ago we didn't have software where a non-software engineer can describe what they want in English and get working (-ish) software generated by other software? Is that not "software has gotten a lot better"? Other than that I'm not sure how we measure "software has gotten better". New applications? More features? How do we measure sloppier? Is Google Maps suddenly taking you the wrong way more often? I'm not really doubting your subjective experience but seriously how do tell? I mean a doc is a doc and a spreadsheet is a spreadsheet. We're also only about 10 months into models that are powerful enough to potentially make a bigger difference and we are still figuring out how to use them best.
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Far from everybody is using it for massive code generation - code size is still very much a liability. I currently use it (ds4-flash, local, code isn't open to non-local) to modify and trim a certain internal project for a different use case. Tons of review passes, fuzz test generation and running, "give me your thoughts on this", etc, etc - basically iterating over and over and over. Funnily enough, my intrinsic knowledge of the codebase improves massively like this. It is involved, but the acceleration is real - and I don't have to worry about wrist nerves as much. The only people I know that have LoC/token use/etc metrics imposed on them work for big corps where such things are (or used to be) en vogue.
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The latest frontier models will write code better than you and more elegant, with less lines of code, in 100th of the time, with full test coverage. Hand coding is like writing out assembly/machine code rather than using a compiler.
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This. Insisting on writing code by hand when LLMs are available is not software engineering in 2026. Engineers find the most cost-effective solution for the problem at hand that meets the requirements.
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I think it's a rebuttal against claims that LLMs are incompatible with large code bases. It's not so much a flex about the quality of the code, it's more a flex about the complexity of the code and the LLMs ability to deal with such complexity. Whether or not that complexity is warranted is a different story. The codebase may be bloated by a factor of 10 but if the costs associated with that are less than the costs of developing the software from a business standpoint the choice is clear.
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I don’t think the flex here is the amount of code alone. Their goal is to show that AI can improve productivity, the number of lines is just the proxy to that. This article is a marketing piece after all. Now someone can argue that lines of code are not a good proxy of engineering productivity, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the audience they target with this content is not the HN commenters of this thread.
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Correct on the first part, partially correct on the second. LOC is a bad metric, but it is at least a legible one. Lots of people working on better ways to measure Software Productivity!
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You can't really do that here because one of the key arguments for this, as people in the thread focus on is "1/10th of time" estimate, the comparison with humans is here already, albeit it is just an estimate and no actual comparison has been done. This is a problem of conflicting incentives that exists today in my opinion. Companies will market greater human-AI collaboration in science and engineering but focus on releasing things like this where it is clear that downstream goal is complete agent ownership over the product, from inception to testing to monitoring. Maybe the speculative future agents will use their own very efficient language to code that won't be readable for people at all. They focus on agent code being readable by agent in the article, as you've said. But in my mind in at least near future, there is a case where your prod will break, you won't be able to understand it or the attempted fixes. Maybe agent will fail to fix it at all and start a massive rewrite. In any case is this different from kicking technical debt down the road along with worse interpretability of what you have built? I do think there is a way where agent can write great solid code that we can read, but with the way LLMs are built this requires something new in terms of reward that accounts for "taste" and constant refinement so it might take more than 1/10th of a time to produce something good.
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Because sloppy code and doesn't matter. He wrote he completed it in 1/10th time. That's equivalent to 1/10th the engineers. That is a business win. That is really all that matters in capitalism. The flex is a direct insult to your face. He is shitting on the faces of all software engineers (me included). It is equivalent to saying we don't need you to code anymore. One man can produce 10x the code. So why am i voting him up even though he's shitting on my face? Because what he says is true. I value honesty and people who say things like it is. Yes my identity as a software engineer is getting dismantled before my very eyes. But the solution to this problem isn't some delusional statement about not understanding what he's flexing about. We're not stupid. Everyone on this thread understands his flex. The difference is some people like you don't want to understand it. Like seriously. He literally wrote it was completed in 1/10th of the time and you expect me to believe that YOU don't know what HE is flexing about? Be real. You're not stupid.
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The real flex is delivering it in one-tenth of the time. Mentioning lines of code is mostly noise. I’ve worked with 20-year-old codebases and products that grew organically over decades and still sit well below a million lines of code. Using LOC as some kind of health or success metric makes me more suspicious than impressed.
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I am not much understanding the naysayers here. I will do a premise: I don't like where software engineering is heading, at all. I have never been unhappier to work in this field since AI came out. And no, it is not possible to opt out of AI, especially when your teammates are all great engineers whose productivity increased a lot without any drops in quality code-wise (in fact the opposite has happened). You need to keep up. But it's tiring and the fun/interesting parts are disappearing. That being said, it's clear that harness engineering is the most important part of our job and that task is going to take increasingly more of our time. And thus having a glimpse of how an AI company handles it is by any means interesting.
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> We intentionally chose this constraint so we would build what was necessary to increase engineering velocity by orders of magnitude.
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I guess orders of magnitude ain’t what they used to be.