> We had weeks to ship what ended up being a million lines of code... Five months later, the repository contains on the order of a million lines of code across application logic, infrastructure, tooling, documentation, and internal developer utilities. Over that period, roughly 1,500 pull requests have been opened and merged with a small team of just three engineers driving Codex. This translates to an average throughput of 3.5 PRs per engineer per day, and surprisingly the throughput has increased as the team has grown to now seven engineers. Importantly, this wasn’t output for output’s sake: the product has been used by hundreds of users internally, including daily internal power users. That's an insane level of throughput. What's a good baseline? Prior to agentic coding, whats the typical number of PRs engineers were expected to push? Maybe a 2-10? Do people feel the software has gotten better in the last 6 months? The number of engs is prob the same so we should expect maybe 5x faster cycle in major software apps, but I don't see it. The AI apps do change very fast but given its a very new field, I'd expect as much. But outside of that, I don't see it.

It feels like the update cadence has indeed sped up. But not necessarily quality. Looking at MS Office I notice a lot of small changes recently that are mostly annoying. Things like Word comments losing the focus after you @-tagged a colleague, needing to click the Outlook search field twice before you can enter text, Outlook mobile date picker losing its ability to show your and attendee's availability. So it looks like lots of throughput, but unfortunately breaking features that work. Or wasting time on things that don’t matter such as the status bar of OneDrive search circling around the input field.

> should expect maybe 5x faster cycle in major software apps To what end and what would that even look like though? Enshittifying everything at maximum speed? The apps/platforms I use regularly - GitHub, Spotify, Google maps (just to name a few), have gotten noticeably shittier in recent times.

>GitHub, Spotify, Google maps (just to name a few), have gotten noticeably shittier in recent times. What if AI lets you create new versions of those tools, but without the enshitification? I say that being in the "soaking" stage of using AI to rebuild a shitty software project in 70KLOC over about 2 weeks of spare time, so this may not be as theoretical as you might think.

Oh I definitely agree that AI can and will help create great software. It's just that creating great software isn't really the SV/VC/big tech business model or main goal.

Lines of code has always been a terrible metric. But all else being equal it is a measure. If all else is not equal, which is usually the case, then it's not. A lot of the focus has been on AI recently. Three years ago we didn't have software where a non-software engineer can describe what they want in English and get working (-ish) software generated by other software? Is that not "software has gotten a lot better"? Other than that I'm not sure how we measure "software has gotten better". New applications? More features? How do we measure sloppier? Is Google Maps suddenly taking you the wrong way more often? I'm not really doubting your subjective experience but seriously how do tell? I mean a doc is a doc and a spreadsheet is a spreadsheet. We're also only about 10 months into models that are powerful enough to potentially make a bigger difference and we are still figuring out how to use them best.

I personally don't view coding agents making software as "software gotten better" you are comparing a tool and the end result, these are two different things. Agent you use going down and your product going down mean two different things to you customers. I will not deny that we made incredible progress in coding and hell, even design over the past 3.5 years, this technology is here to stay. That being said while I agree that measuring better quality of software is vague (part of the reason it is hard for models as well), there are universal things I believe every engineer will agree on. Reliability, uptime, customer feedback, legibility of your engineering, performance, these are things we often optimized for. Google Maps is a bit of a strawman because neither of us (unless you work on it), knows how much agent code there is, I think it is likely that it's little since it was working fine prior to 2023. I could bring up github reliability as an example, given how much copilot usage they promote at MS, but once again only folks there know for certain. I do, however, see scores of various AI powered SAAS that looks like it is in a perpetual MVP state. I think you are right in that even if agents give us "good enough" results and we can swallow failure rates and our increasingly lesser understanding of what we, or more so model, created, then it is still progress overall, but this is progress not to human-AI collaboration but to AI-only engineering IMO, this is good or bad depending on how you view the future. I'm a scientist and most of code I currently write is somewhere on the intersection of critical software and machine learning, squaring these two is not easy and I guess the way I was taught to reason about engineering informs my opinions on this. Maybe it's just a matter of time before codex can help here in an unconstrained manner as well, but I am skeptical at the moment.

> Is Google Maps suddenly taking you the wrong way more often? Funny you mention that because I had that issue in a cab just yesterday. Google decided to drive us of the main road to a series of small roads which happened to be a dead end. My guess is that the AI decided that this is a shorter road? less busier road? That being said, Google maps have been gradually degrading. Most notably, its search function is quasi-broken now.