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Notes for Early Indicators

Complete Created: Jan 8, 03:23 PM (00:01:09)

Model: Claude Opus 4.5 · Target: 500 words

Notion Page: https://www.notion.so/Notes-for-Early-Indicators-23b1a29f178980e7bb3af34c093d0b45

Summary (from 35,503 words)

Resources (15 fetched, 12 errors)

Type URL / Title Status Size Words Files
notion https://www.notion.so/Notes-for-Early-Indicators-23b1a29f178...
Notes for Early Indicators 		fetched 18.4 KB 2,947 Raw / Text
tweet https://x.com/StringChaos/status/1928476388274716707
Tweet by Naman Jain 		fetched 359 B 38 Raw / Text
tweet https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1900218546904293863
Tweet by Siméon 		fetched 350 B 54 Raw / Text
webpage https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-says-business... error - - - / -
webpage https://mikelovesrobots.substack.com/p/wheres-the-shovelware...
Where's the Shovelware? Why AI Coding Claims Don't Add Up 		fetched 236.4 KB 2,296 Raw / Text
tweet https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1956514153528742168?t=qJkEFl...
Tweet by Siméon 		fetched 326 B 49 Raw / Text
notion https://www.notion.so/26b4c916374a807eac83c7b05859c488
Will there be a bubble pop? / Economics of AI 		fetched 30.3 KB 4,320 Raw / Text
webpage https://docs.google.com/document/d/1w4kTK2dGZZInmjuaT5_UG5gY... error - - - / -
notion https://www.notion.so/2381a29f178980eda6c1d137ccc01aac#2471a... error - - - / -
notion https://www.notion.so/2551a29f178980188ce6fd8bb09a566e#2551a... error - - - / -
webpage https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499
[2503.14499] Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks 		fetched 49.5 KB 876 Raw / Text
webpage https://amistrongeryet.substack.com/p/where-ai-falls-short error - - - / -
webpage https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKAFFvaouKKEhbBPm/a-bear-cas...
A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress — LessWrong 		fetched 2.9 MB 10,000 (truncated) Raw / Text
notion https://www.notion.so/2294c916374a8083a6f1fdf0e4674ecc error - - - / -
webpage https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NE00dsr6MtrJiZ1o5pepCTO2... error - - - / -
webpage https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/132hNhKM5Ar08Z6gEaR5X... error - - - / -
webpage https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1iCpRc2NDctmWkB6g2fNH... error - - - / -
webpage https://docs.google.com/document/d/13HGS14U9fhvUhmksyQyZkXap... error - - - / -
webpage https://t.co/dq7NJyXkNk
JavaScript is not available. 		fetched 225.6 KB 29 Raw / Text
tweet https://x.com/arcprize/status/1965465501079142814?t=L7y6E9f9...
Tweet by ARC Prize 		fetched 326 B 43 Raw / Text
webpage https://epochai.substack.com/p/after-the-chatgpt-moment-meas...
After the ChatGPT Moment: Measuring AI’s Adoption 		fetched 298.6 KB 2,922 Raw / Text
webpage https://globaldialogues.ai/cadence/march-2025
Global Dialogues 		fetched 114.7 KB 722 Raw / Text
tweet https://x.com/cherylwoooo/status/1929348520370417704?t=f9E9Y...
Tweet by Cheryl Wu 		fetched 245 B 40 Raw / Text
webpage https://asteriskmag.com/issues/10/does-ai-progress-have-a-sp...
Does AI Progress Have a Speed Limit?—Asterisk 		fetched 60.9 KB 5,805 Raw / Text
webpage https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lvcfeZBehflx2BDXvLD7... error - - - / -
webpage https://metr.substack.com/p/2025-07-14-how-does-time-horizon...
How Does Time Horizon Vary Across Domains? - METR 		fetched 312.4 KB 5,210 Raw / Text
webpage https://docs.google.com/document/d/115YVucVLdzPoXkoKdywyDzLa... error - - - / -

Not Explored (20)

Type URL / Preview Note
tweet https://x.com/StringChaos/status/19284763882747167...
Can SWE-Agents aid in High-Performance Software development? ⚡️🤔 Introducing GSO: A Challenging Co... 		links not explored
tweet https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/190021854690429386...
If an LLM scores 40% on Cybench, what does that tell you about its ability to help in a real-world a... 		links not explored
web https://mikelovesrobots.substack.com/p/wheres-the-...
Where's the Shovelware? Why AI Coding Claims Don't Add Up 		links not explored
tweet https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/195651415352874216...
I've entertained that theory for a few years and have been confused since then why people expected c... 		links not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/document/d/1w4kTK2dGZZInmj...
Google Doc 		content not explored
web https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499
[2503.14499] Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks 		links not explored
web https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKAFFvaouKKEhbBPm/...
A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress — LessWrong 		links not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NE00dsr6MtrJiZ...
Google Doc 		content not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/132hNhKM5Ar...
Google Doc 		content not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1iCpRc2NDct...
Google Doc 		content not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/document/d/13HGS14U9fhvUhm...
Google Doc 		content not explored
web https://t.co/dq7NJyXkNk
JavaScript is not available. 		links not explored
tweet https://x.com/arcprize/status/1965465501079142814?...
ARC Prize Foundation @ MIT We're hosting an evening with top researchers to explore measuring sampl... 		links not explored
web https://epochai.substack.com/p/after-the-chatgpt-m...
After the ChatGPT Moment: Measuring AI’s Adoption 		links not explored
web https://globaldialogues.ai/cadence/march-2025
Global Dialogues 		links not explored
tweet https://x.com/cherylwoooo/status/19293485203704177...
Are we at the cusp of recursive self-improvement to ASI? This tends to be the core force behind shor... 		links not explored
web https://asteriskmag.com/issues/10/does-ai-progress...
Does AI Progress Have a Speed Limit?—Asterisk 		links not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lvcfeZBehf...
Google Doc 		content not explored
web https://metr.substack.com/p/2025-07-14-how-does-ti...
How Does Time Horizon Vary Across Domains? - METR 		links not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/document/d/115YVucVLdzPoXk...
Google Doc 		content not explored

Problems (6)

Raw Files

Main Page JSON Main Page Text Combined Text Full Text ↗

Execution Log

[2026-01-08T23:23:18.811Z] Starting step: fetch_notion_page (attempt 1)
[2026-01-08T23:23:18.845Z] Fetching Notion page: 23b1a29f178980e7bb3af34c093d0b45
[2026-01-08T23:23:18.874Z] Configured 2 API keys (lengths: 50, 50)
[2026-01-08T23:23:19.075Z] API key 1 failed with object_not_found, trying key 2...
[2026-01-08T23:23:19.323Z] Page title: Notes for Early Indicators (using API key 2)
[2026-01-08T23:23:26.591Z] Fetched 132 blocks
[2026-01-08T23:23:26.623Z] Found 26 outbound links
[2026-01-08T23:23:26.964Z] Created 27 resources (1 fetched, 26 pending)
[2026-01-08T23:23:26.992Z] Completed step: fetch_notion_page in 8147ms
[2026-01-08T23:23:27.237Z] Starting step: fetch_resources (attempt 1)
[2026-01-08T23:23:27.298Z] Fetching batch of 10 resources (10 pending, 0 retrying)
[2026-01-08T23:23:27.332Z] Fetching tweet: https://x.com/StringChaos/status/1928476388274716707...
[2026-01-08T23:23:27.735Z] Fetching tweet: https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1900218546904293863...
[2026-01-08T23:23:28.151Z] Fetching webpage: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-says-business-will-burn-115-billi...
[2026-01-08T23:23:28.217Z] Fetching webpage: https://mikelovesrobots.substack.com/p/wheres-the-shovelware-why-ai-coding...
[2026-01-08T23:23:28.709Z] Fetching tweet: https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1956514153528742168?t=qJkEFlWoQAD6z6g4HMhNAw&s=0...
[2026-01-08T23:23:29.107Z] Fetching notion: https://www.notion.so/26b4c916374a807eac83c7b05859c488...
[2026-01-08T23:23:41.674Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1w4kTK2dGZZInmjuaT5_UG5gYhVrx2yvR-5GAX_ai0iA/...
[2026-01-08T23:23:41.709Z] Fetching notion: https://www.notion.so/2381a29f178980eda6c1d137ccc01aac#2471a29f178980878a29c548b...
[2026-01-08T23:23:42.977Z] Fetching notion: https://www.notion.so/2551a29f178980188ce6fd8bb09a566e#2551a29f178980c1914bf155b...
[2026-01-08T23:23:43.684Z] Fetching webpage: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499...
[2026-01-08T23:23:44.310Z] Batch complete, 16 resources still pending
[2026-01-08T23:23:44.343Z] Completed step: fetch_resources in 17074ms
[2026-01-08T23:23:44.431Z] Re-queuing step: fetch_resources for next batch
[2026-01-08T23:23:44.715Z] Starting step: fetch_resources (attempt 1)
[2026-01-08T23:23:44.775Z] Fetching batch of 10 resources (10 pending, 0 retrying)
[2026-01-08T23:23:44.812Z] Fetching webpage: https://amistrongeryet.substack.com/p/where-ai-falls-short...
[2026-01-08T23:23:45.005Z] Fetching webpage: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKAFFvaouKKEhbBPm/a-bear-case-my-predictions-reg...
[2026-01-08T23:23:46.732Z] Fetching notion: https://www.notion.so/2294c916374a8083a6f1fdf0e4674ecc...
[2026-01-08T23:23:46.980Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NE00dsr6MtrJiZ1o5pepCTO28hfDKDohBYCXDLtOTs4/...
[2026-01-08T23:23:47.014Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/132hNhKM5Ar08Z6gEaR5XA6lVy-VvgAgaQ_ZYYy7Y...
[2026-01-08T23:23:47.048Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1iCpRc2NDctmWkB6g2fNHkwVvHkaUKwES6lRLujSV...
[2026-01-08T23:23:47.080Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/document/d/13HGS14U9fhvUhmksyQyZkXapoWHN_zPrEeArgAhs6P0/...
[2026-01-08T23:23:47.116Z] Fetching webpage: https://t.co/dq7NJyXkNk...
[2026-01-08T23:23:47.663Z] Fetching tweet: https://x.com/arcprize/status/1965465501079142814?t=L7y6E9f9cwxgjwWD1FMZJA&s=03...
[2026-01-08T23:23:48.048Z] Fetching webpage: https://epochai.substack.com/p/after-the-chatgpt-moment-measuring...
[2026-01-08T23:23:48.475Z] Batch complete, 6 resources still pending
[2026-01-08T23:23:48.507Z] Completed step: fetch_resources in 3755ms
[2026-01-08T23:23:48.601Z] Re-queuing step: fetch_resources for next batch
[2026-01-08T23:23:48.850Z] Starting step: fetch_resources (attempt 1)
[2026-01-08T23:23:48.903Z] Fetching batch of 6 resources (6 pending, 0 retrying)
[2026-01-08T23:23:48.935Z] Fetching webpage: https://globaldialogues.ai/cadence/march-2025...
[2026-01-08T23:23:51.019Z] Fetching tweet: https://x.com/cherylwoooo/status/1929348520370417704?t=f9E9Yty2m27EQ-Z_NbbJ3Q&s=...
[2026-01-08T23:23:51.851Z] Fetching webpage: https://asteriskmag.com/issues/10/does-ai-progress-have-a-speed-limit...
[2026-01-08T23:23:52.239Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lvcfeZBehflx2BDXvLD7AzreM_qGzZx3SgL-qHvq...
[2026-01-08T23:23:52.276Z] Fetching webpage: https://metr.substack.com/p/2025-07-14-how-does-time-horizon-vary-across-domains...
[2026-01-08T23:23:52.690Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/document/d/115YVucVLdzPoXkoKdywyDzLanSQEWJ3POEPb_FLxFs4/...
[2026-01-08T23:23:52.730Z] All resources fetched
[2026-01-08T23:23:52.763Z] Completed step: fetch_resources in 3879ms
[2026-01-08T23:23:53.049Z] Starting step: summarize (attempt 1)
[2026-01-08T23:23:53.107Z] Collecting text from 27 resources
[2026-01-08T23:23:54.434Z] Combined text: 35503 words from 15 resources
[2026-01-08T23:23:54.801Z] Calling claude-opus-4-5-20251101 for 500-word summary (220572 chars input)
[2026-01-08T23:24:26.488Z] Summary generated: 676 words (54182 input tokens, 988 output tokens)
[2026-01-08T23:24:26.527Z] Completed step: summarize in 33441ms
[2026-01-08T23:24:26.662Z] Job completed successfully

LLM Invocations (Total: $0.2956)

Time Purpose Model Duration Outcome Input Output Cost
03:24 PM Generate summaries claude-opus-4-5-20251101 31.3s Success Input (54,182) Output (988) $0.2956

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