Summarizer

Determinism vs. Probabilistic Output

Comparisons between compilers (deterministic, reliable) and LLMs (probabilistic, 'fuzzy'). Users debate whether 100% correctness is required for tools, with some arguing that LLMs are fundamentally different from traditional automation because they lack a 'ground truth' logic, while others argue that error rates are acceptable if the utility is high enough.

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The debate centers on whether the non-deterministic nature of LLMs makes them fundamentally incompatible with the "ground truth" reliability of traditional tools like compilers, which developers trust to be nearly 100% accurate. While some argue that absolute correctness is unnecessary if the efficiency of "fuzzy" output outweighs the cost of reviewing it, critics warn that this shift toward "vibe coding" risks an "evolutionary regression" of human reasoning. This transition from active creation to passive auditing threatens to replace deep technical intuition—the focused "Stare" required to solve complex problems—with a high-speed mimicry of logic that is often confidently, yet authoritatively, wrong. Ultimately, the industry is split between those embracing a new era of rapid delegation and those who fear we are trading hard-earned competence for a foundation of "digital sand."

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Architects went from drawing everything on paper, to using CAD products over a generation. That's a lot of years! They're still called architects. Our tooling just had a refresh in less than 3 years and it leaves heads spinning. People are confused, fighting for or against it. Torn even between 2025 to 2026. I know I was. People need a way to describe it from 'agentic coding' to 'vibe coding' to 'modern AI assisted stack'. We don't call architects 'vibe architects' even though they copy-paste 4/5th of your next house and use a library of things in their work! We don't call builders 'vibe builders' for using earth-moving machines instead of a shovel... When was the last time you reviewed the machine code produced by a compiler? ... The real issue this industry is facing, is the phenomenal speed of change. But what are we really doing? That's right, programming.
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"When was the last time you reviewed the machine code produced by a compiler?" Compilers will produce working output given working input literally 100% of my time in my career. I've never personally found a compiler bug. Meanwhile AI can't be trusted to give me a recipe for potato soup. That is to say, I would under no circumstances blindly follow the output of an LLM I asked to make soup. While I have, every day of my life, gladly sent all of the compiler output to the CPU without ever checking it. The compiler metaphor is simply incorrect and people trying to say LLMs compile English into code insult compiler devs and English speakers alike.
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> Compilers will produce working output given working input literally 100% of my time in my career. In my experience this isn't true. People just assume their code is wrong and mess with it until they inadvertently do something that works around the bug. I've personally reported 17 bugs in GCC over the last 2 years and there are currently 1241 open wrong-code bugs. Here's an example of a simple to understand bug (not mine) in the C frontend that has existed since GCC 4.7: https://gcc.gnu.org/bugzilla/show_bug.cgi?id=105180
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These are still deterministic bugs, which is the point the OP was making. They can be found and solved once. Most of those bugs are simply not that important, so they never get attention. LLMS on the other hand are non-deterministic and unpredictable and fuzzy by design . That makes them not ideal when trying to produce output which is provably correct - sure you can output and then laboriously check the output - some people find that useful, some are yet to find it useful. It's a little like using Bitcoin to replace currencies - sure you can do that, but it includes design flaws which make it fundamentally unsuited to doing so. 10 years ago we had rabid defenders of these currencies telling us they would soon take over the global monetary system and replace it, nowadays, not so much.
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> It's a little like using Bitcoin to replace currencies [...] At least, Bitcoin transactions are deterministic. Not many would want to use a AI currency (mostly works; always shows "Oh, you are 100% right" after losing one's money).
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Sure bitcoin is at least deterministic, but IMO (an that of many in the finance industry) it's solving entirely the wrong problem - in practice people want trust and identity in transactions much more than they want distributed and trustless. In a similar way LLMs seem to me to be solving the wrong problem - an elegant and interesting solution, but a solution to the wrong problem (how can I fool humans into thinking the bot is generally intelligent), rather than the right problem (how can I create a general intelligence with knowledge of the world). It's not clear to me we can jump from the first to the second.
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> I've personally reported 17 bugs in GCC over the last 2 years You are an extreme outlier. I know about two dozen people who work with C(++) and not a single one of them has ever told me that they've found a compiler bug when we've talked about coding and debugging - it's been exclusively them describing PEBCAK.
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I knew one person reporting gcc bugs, and iirc those were all niche scenarios where it generated slightly suboptimal machine code but not otherwise observable from behavior
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Right - I'm not saying that it doesn't happen, but that it's highly unusual for the majority of C(++) developers, and that some bugs are "just" suboptimal code generation (as opposed to functional correctness, which the GP was arguing).
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This argument is disingenuous and distracts rather than addresses the point. Yes, it is possible for a compiler to have a bug. No, that is I’m mo way analogous to AI producing buggy code. I’ve experienced maybe two compiler bugs in my twenty year career. I have experienced countless AI mistakes - hundreds? Thousands? Already. These are not the same and it has the whiff of sales patter trying to address objections. Please stop.
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I'm not arguing that LLMs are at a point today where we can blindly trust their outputs in most applications, I just don't think that 100% correct output is necessarily a requirement for that. What it needs to be is correct often enough that the cost of reviewing the output far outweighs the average cost of any errors in the output, just like with a compiler. This even applies to human written code and human mistakes, as the expected cost of errors goes up we spend more time on having multiple people review the code and we worry more about carefully designing tests.
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If natural language is used to specify work to the LLM, how can the output ever be trusted? You'll always need to make sure the program does what you want, rather than what you said.
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You trust your natural language instructions thousand times a day. If you ask for a large black coffee, you can trust that is more or less what you’ll get. Occasionally you may get something so atrocious that you don’t dare to drink, but generally speaking you trust the coffee shop knows what you want. It you insist on a specific amount of coffee brewed at a specific temperature, however, you need tools to measure. AI tools are similar. You can trust them because they are good enough, and you need a way (testing) to make sure what is produced meet your specific requirements. Of course they may fail for you, doesn’t mean they aren’t useful in other cases. All of that is simply common sense.
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the fact that the bug tracker exists is proving GP's point.
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Right, now what would you say is the probability of getting a bug in compiler output vs ai output? It's a great tool, once it matures.
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> Meanwhile AI can't be trusted to give me a recipe for potato soup. This just isn't true any more. Outside of work, my most common use case for LLMs is probably cooking. I used to frequently second guess them, but no longer - in my experience SOTA models are totally reliable for producing good recipes. I recognize that at a higher level we're still talking about probabilistic recipe generation vs. deterministic compiler output, but at this point it's nonetheless just inaccurate to act as though LLMs can't be trusted with simple (e.g. potato soup recipe) tasks.
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Compilers and processors are deterministic by design . LLMs are non-deterministic by design . It's not apples vs. oranges. They are literally opposite of each other.
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Recent experiments with LLM recipes (ChatGPT): missed salt in a recipe to make rice, then flubbed whether that type of rice was recommended to be washed in the recipe it was supposedly summarizing (and lied about it, too)… Probabilistic generation will be weighted towards the means in the training data. Do I want my code looking like most code most of the time in a world full of Node.js and PHP? Am I better served by rapid delivery from a non-learning algorithm that requires eternal vigilance and critical re-evaluation or with slower delivery with a single review filtered through an meatspace actor who will build out trustable modules in a linear fashion with known failure modes already addressed by process (ie TDD, specs, integration & acceptance tests)? I’m using LLMs a lot, but can’t shake the feeling that the TCO and total time shakes out worse than it feels as you go.
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There was a guy a few months ago who found that telling the AI to do everything in a single PHP file actually produced significantly better results, i.e. it worked on the first try. Otherwise it defaulted to React, 1GB of node modules, and a site that wouldn't even load. >Am I better served For anything serious, I write the code "semi-interactively", i.e. I just prompt and verify small chunks of the program in rapid succession. That way I keep my mental model synced the whole time, I never have any catching up to do, and honestly it just feels good to stay in the driver's seat.
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Everything more complex than a hello-world has bugs. Compiler bugs are uncommon, but not that uncommon. (I must have debugged a few ICEs in my career, but luckily have had more skilled people to rely on when code generation itself was wrong.) Compilers aren't even that bad. The stack goes much deeper and during your career you may be (un)lucky enough to find yourself far below compilers: https://bostik.iki.fi/aivoituksia/random/developer-debugging... NB. I've been to vfs/fs depths. A coworker relied on an oscilloscope quite frequently.
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I had a fun bug while building a smartwatch app that was caused by the sample rate of the accelerometer increasing when the device heated up. I had code that was performing machine learning on the accelerometer data, which would mysteriously get less accurate during prolonged operation. It turned out that we gathered most of our training data during shorter runs when the device was cool, and when the device heated up during extended use, it changed the frequencies of the recorded signals enough to throw off our model. I've also used a logic analyzer to debug communications protocols quite a few times in my career, and I've grown to rather like that sort of work, tedious as it may be. Just this week I built a VFS using FUSE and managed to kernel panic my Mac a half-dozen times. Very fun debugging times.
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”I've never personally found a compiler bug.” I remember the time I spent hours debugging a feature that worked on Solaris and Windows but failed to produce the right results on SGI. Turns out the SGI C++ compiler silently ignored the `throw` keyword! Just didn’t emit an opcode at all! Or maybe it wrote a NOP. All I’m saying is, compilers aren’t perfect. I agree about determinism though. And I mitigate that concern by prompting AI assistants to write code that solves a problem, instead of just asking for a new and potentially different answer every time I execute the app.
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I'm trying to track down a GCC miscompilation right now ;)
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> Meanwhile AI can't be trusted to give me a recipe for potato soup. Because there isn’t a canonical recipe for potato soup.
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There's also no canonical way to write software, so in that sense generating code is more similar to coming up with a potato soup recipe than compiling code.
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This exactly, I cook as passion, and LLMs just routinely very clearly (weighted) "average" together different recipes to produce, in the worst case, disgusting monstrosities, or, in the best case, just a near-replica of some established site's recipe.
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It won’t be deterministic.
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> Compilers will produce working output given working input literally 100% of my time in my career. I've never personally found a compiler bug. First compilers were created in the fifties. I doubt those were bug-free. Give LLMs some fifty or so years, then let's see how (un)reliable they are.
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> We don't call architects 'vibe architects' even though they copy-paste 4/5th of your next house and use a library of things in their work! > We don't call builders 'vibe builders' for using earth-moving machines instead of a shovel... > When was the last time you reviewed the machine code produced by a compiler? Sure, because those are categorically different. You are describing shortcuts of two classes: boilerplate (library of things) and (deterministic/intentional) automation. Vibe coding doesn't use either of those things. The LLM agents involved might use them, but the vibe coder doesn't. Vibe coding is delegation , which is a completely different class of shortcut or "tool" use. If an architect delegates all their work to interns, directs outcomes based on whims not principals, and doesn't actually know what the interns are delivering, yeah, I think it would be fair to call them a vibe architect. We didn't have that term before, so we usually just call those people "arrogant pricks" or "terrible bosses". I'm not super familiar but I feel like Steve Jobs was pretty famously that way - thus if he was an engineer, he was a vibe engineer. But don't let this last point detract from the message, which is that you're describing things which are not really even similar to vibe coding.
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> We don't call architects 'vibe architects' even though they copy-paste 4/5th of your next house and use a library of things in their work! Architect's copy-pasting is equivalent to a software developer reusing a tried and tested code library. Generating or writing new code is fundamentally different and not at all comparable. > We don't call builders 'vibe builders' for using earth-moving machines instead of a shovel... We would call them "vibe builders" if their machines threw bricks around randomly and the builders focused all of their time on engineering complex scaffolding around the machines to get the bricks flying roughly in the right direction. But we don't because their machines, like our compilers and linters, do one job and they do it predictably. Most trades spend obscene amounts of money on tools that produce repeatable results. > That's a lot of years! They're still called architects. Because they still architect, they don't subcontract their core duties to architecture students overseas and just sign their name under it. I find it fitting and amusing that people who are uncritical towards the quality of LLM-generated work seem to make the same sorts of reasoning errors that LLMs do. Something about blind spots?
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Don't take this as criticizing LLMs as a whole, but architects also don't call themselves engineers. Engineers are an entirely distinct set of roles that among other things validate the plan in its totality, not only the "new" 1/5th. Our job spans both of these. "Architect" is actually a whole career progression of people with different responsibilities. The bottom rung used to be the draftsmen, people usually without formal education who did the actual drawing. Then you had the juniors, mid-levels, seniors, principals, and partners who each oversaw different aspects. The architects with their name on the building were already issuing high level guidance before the transition instead of doing their own drawings. When was the last time you reviewed the machine code produced by a compiler? Last week, to sanity check some code written by an LLM.
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> When was the last time you reviewed the machine code produced by a compiler? ... Any time I’m doing serious optimization or knee-deep in debugging something where the bug emerged at -O2 but not at -O0. Sometimes just for fun to see what the compiler is doing in its optimization passes. You severely limit what you can do and what you can learn if you never peek underneath.
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> We don't call architects 'vibe architects' even though (…) > We don't call builders 'vibe builders' for (…) > When was the last time (…) None of those are the same thing. At all. They are still all deterministic approaches. The architect’s library of things doesn’t change every time they use it or present different things depending on how they hold it. It’s useful because it’s predictable. Same for all your other examples. If we want to have an honest discussion about the pros and cons of LLM-generated code, proponents need to stop being dishonest in their comparisons. They also need to stop plugging their ears and not ignore the other issues around the technology. It is possible to have something which is useful but whose advantages do not outweigh the disadvantages.
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That’s another dishonest comparison. Predictability is not the same as precision. You don’t need to be millimetric when shovelling dirt at a construction site. But you do need to do it when conducting brain surgery. Context matters.
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Compilers are deterministic.
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GPT-4 showed the potential but the automated workflows (context management, loops, test-running) and pure execution speed to handle all that "reasoning"/workflows (remember watching characters pop in slowly in GPT-4 streaming API response calls) are gamechangers. The workflow automation and better (and model-directed) context management are all obvious in retrospect but a lot of people (like myself) were instead focused on IDE integration and such vs `grep` and the like. Maybe multi-agent with task boards is the next thing, but it feels like that might also start to outrun the ability to sensibly design and test new features for non-greenfield/non-port projects. Who knows yet. I think it's still very valuable for someone to dig in to the underlying models periodically (insomuch as the APIs even expose the same level of raw stuff anymore) to get a feeling for what's reliable to one-shot vs what's easily correctable by a "ran the tests, saw it was wrong, fixed it" loop. If you don't have a good sense of that, it's easy to get overambitious and end up with something you don't like if you're the sort of person who cares at all about what the code looks like.
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let me ask a stupid/still-ignorant question - about repeatability. If one asks this generator/assistant same request/thing, within same initial contexts, 10 times, would it generate same result ? in different sessions and all that. because.. if not, then it's for once-off things only..
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If I asked you for the same thing 10 times, wiping your memory each time, would you generate the same result? And why does it matter anyway? I'd the code passes the tests and you like the look of it, it's good. It doesn't need to be existentially complicated.
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A pretty bad comparison. If I gave you the correct answer once, it's unlikely that I'll give you a wrong answer the next time. Also, aren't computers supposed to be more reliable than us? If I'm going to use a tool that behaves just like humans, why not just use my brain instead?
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I think the web/system dichotomy is also a major conflating factor for LLM discussions. A “few hundred lines of code” in Rust or Haskell can be bumping into multiple issues LLM assisted coding struggles with. Moving a few buttons on a website with animations and stuff through multiple front end frameworks may reasonably generate 5-10x that much “code”, but of an entirely different calibre. 3,000 lines a day of well-formatted HTML template edits, paired with a reloadable website for rapid validation, is super digestible, while 300 lines of code per day into curl could be seen as reckless.
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The Death of the "Stare": Why AI’s "Confident Stupidity" is a Threat to Human Genius OPINION | THE REALITY CHECK In the gleaming offices of Silicon Valley and the boardrooms of the Fortune 500, a new religion has taken hold. Its deity is the Large Language Model, and its disciples—the AI Evangelists—speak in a dialect of "disruption," "optimization," and "seamless integration." But outside the vacuum of the digital world, a dangerous friction is building between AI’s statistical hallucinations and the unyielding laws of physics. The danger of Artificial Intelligence isn't that it will become our overlord; the danger is that it is fundamentally, confidently, and authoritatively stupid. The Paradox of the Wind-Powered Car The divide between AI hype and reality is best illustrated by a recent technical "solution" suggested by a popular AI model: an electric vehicle equipped with wind generators on the front to recharge the battery while driving. To the AI, this was a brilliant synergy. It even claimed the added weight and wind resistance amounted to "zero." To any human who has ever held a wrench or understood the First Law of Thermodynamics, this is a joke—a perpetual motion fallacy that ignores the reality of drag and energy loss. But to the AI, it was just a series of words that sounded "correct" based on patterns. The machine doesn't know what wind is; it only knows how to predict the next syllable. The Erosion of the "Human Spark" The true threat lies in what we are sacrificing to adopt this "shortcut" culture. There is a specific human process—call it The Stare. It is that thirty-minute window where a person looks at a broken machine, a flawed blueprint, or a complex problem and simply observes. In that half-hour, the human brain runs millions of mental simulations. It feels the tension of the metal, the heat of the circuit, and the logic of the physical universe. It is a "Black Box" of consciousness that develops solutions from absolutely nothing—no forums, no books, and no Google. However, the new generation of AI-dependent thinkers views this "Stare" as an inefficiency. By outsourcing our thinking to models that cannot feel the consequences of being wrong, we are witnessing a form of evolutionary regression. We are trading hard-earned competence for a "Yes-Man" in a box. The Gaslighting of the Realist Perhaps most chilling is the social cost. Those who still rely on their intuition and physical experience are increasingly being marginalized. In a world where the screen is king, the person pointing out that "the Emperor has no clothes" is labeled as erratic, uneducated, or naive. When a master craftsman or a practical thinker challenges an AI’s "hallucination," they aren't met with logic; they are met with a robotic refusal to acknowledge reality. The "AI Evangelists" have begun to walk, talk, and act like the models they worship—confidently wrong, devoid of nuance, and completely detached from the ground beneath their feet. The High Cost of Being "Authoritatively Wrong" We are building a world on a foundation of digital sand. If we continue to trust AI to design our structures and manage our logic, we will eventually hit a wall that no "prompt" can fix. The human brain runs on 20 watts and can solve a problem by looking at it. The AI runs on megawatts and can’t understand why a wind-powered car won't run forever. If we lose the ability to tell the difference, we aren't just losing our jobs—we're losing our grip on reality itself.
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"Become better at intuiting the behavior of this non-deterministic black box oracle maintained by a third party" just isn't a strong professional development sell for me, personally. If the future of writing software is chasing what a model trainer has done with no ability to actually change that myself I don't think that's going to be interesting to nearly as many people.
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And yet the comments are chock full of cargo-culting about different moods of the oracle and ways to get better output.
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I think this is underrating the role of intuition in working effectively with deterministic but very complex software systems like operating systems and compilers. Determinism is a red herring.
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It sounds to me like the goal there is to spell out everything you don't want the agent to make assumptions about. If you let the agent make the plan, it'll still make those assumptions for you.
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> The bottle neck has gone from writing code to reading code. This has always been the bottleneck. Reviewing code is much harder and gets worse results than writing it, which is why reviewing AI code is not very efficient. The time required to understand code far outstrips the time to type it. Most devs don’t do thorough reviews. Check the variable names seem ok, make sure there’s no obvious typos, ask for a comment and call it good. For a trusted teammate this is actually ok and why they’re so valuable! For an AI, it’s a slot machine and trusting it is equivalent to letting your coworkers/users do your job so you can personally move faster.
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> It's so sad that we're the ones who have to tell the agent how to improve by extending agent.md or whatever. Your improvement is someone else's code smell. There's no absolute right or wrong way to write code, and that's coming from someone who definitely thinks there's a right way. But it's my right way. Anyway, I don't know why you'd expect it to write code the way you like after it's been trained on the whole of the Internet & the the RLHF labelers' preferences and the reward model. Putting some words in AGENTS.md hardly seems like the most annoying thing. tip: Add a /fix command that tells it to fix $1 and then update AGENTS.md with the text that'd stop it from making that mistake in the future. Use your nearest LLM to tweak that prompt. It's a good timesaver.
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One thing to keep in mind is that the core of an LLM is basically a (non-deterministic) stateless function that takes text as input, and gives text as output. The chat and session interfaces obscure this, making it look more stateful than it is. But they mainly just send the whole chat so far back to the LLM to get the next response. That's why the context window grows as a chat/session continues. It's also why the answers tend to get worse with longer context windows – you're giving the LLM a lot more to sift through. You can manage the context window manually instead. You'll potentially lose some efficiencies from prompt caching, but you can also keep your requests much smaller and more relevant, likely spending fewer tokens.
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LLMs work on text and nothing else. There isn't any magic there. Just a limited context window on which the model will keep predicting the next token until it decides that it's predicted enough and stop. All the tooling is there to manage that context for you. It works, to a degree, then stops working. Your intuition is there to decide when it stops working. This intuition gets outdated with each new release of the frontier model and changes in the tooling. The stateless API with a human deciding what to feed it is much more efficient in both cost and time as long as you're only running a single agent. I've yet to see anyone use multiple agents to generate code successfully (but I have used agent swarms for unstructured knowledge retrieval). The Unix tools are there for you to progra-manually search and edit the code base copy/paste into the context that you will send. Outside of Emacs (and possibly vim) with the ability to have dozens of ephemeral buffers open to modify their output I don't imagine they will be very useful. Or to quote the SICP lectures: The magic is that there is no magic.
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The Death of the "Stare": Why AI’s "Confident Stupidity" is a Threat to Human Genius OPINION | THE REALITY CHECK In the gleaming offices of Silicon Valley and the boardrooms of the Fortune 500, a new religion has taken hold. Its deity is the Large Language Model, and its disciples—the AI Evangelists—speak in a dialect of "disruption," "optimization," and "seamless integration." But outside the vacuum of the digital world, a dangerous friction is building between AI’s statistical hallucinations and the unyielding laws of physics. The danger of Artificial Intelligence isn't that it will become our overlord; the danger is that it is fundamentally, confidently, and authoritatively stupid. The Paradox of the Wind-Powered Car The divide between AI hype and reality is best illustrated by a recent technical "solution" suggested by a popular AI model: an electric vehicle equipped with wind generators on the front to recharge the battery while driving. To the AI, this was a brilliant synergy. It even claimed the added weight and wind resistance amounted to "zero." To any human who has ever held a wrench or understood the First Law of Thermodynamics, this is a joke—a perpetual motion fallacy that ignores the reality of drag and energy loss. But to the AI, it was just a series of words that sounded "correct" based on patterns. The machine doesn't know what wind is; it only knows how to predict the next syllable. The Erosion of the "Human Spark" The true threat lies in what we are sacrificing to adopt this "shortcut" culture. There is a specific human process—call it The Stare. It is that thirty-minute window where a person looks at a broken machine, a flawed blueprint, or a complex problem and simply observes. In that half-hour, the human brain runs millions of mental simulations. It feels the tension of the metal, the heat of the circuit, and the logic of the physical universe. It is a "Black Box" of consciousness that develops solutions from absolutely nothing—no forums, no books, and no Google. However, the new generation of AI-dependent thinkers views this "Stare" as an inefficiency. By outsourcing our thinking to models that cannot feel the consequences of being wrong, we are witnessing a form of evolutionary regression. We are trading hard-earned competence for a "Yes-Man" in a box. The Gaslighting of the Realist Perhaps most chilling is the social cost. Those who still rely on their intuition and physical experience are increasingly being marginalized. In a world where the screen is king, the person pointing out that "the Emperor has no clothes" is labeled as erratic, uneducated, or naive. When a master craftsman or a practical thinker challenges an AI’s "hallucination," they aren't met with logic; they are met with a robotic refusal to acknowledge reality. The "AI Evangelists" have begun to walk, talk, and act like the models they worship—confidently wrong, devoid of nuance, and completely detached from the ground beneath their feet. The High Cost of Being "Authoritatively Wrong" We are building a world on a foundation of digital sand. If we continue to trust AI to design our structures and manage our logic, we will eventually hit a wall that no "prompt" can fix. The human brain runs on 20 watts and can solve a problem by looking at it. The AI runs on megawatts and can’t understand why a wind-powered car won't run forever. If we lose the ability to tell the difference, we aren't just losing our jobs—we're losing our grip on reality itself.