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Notes for Early Indicators

Complete Created: Jan 8, 02:12 PM (00:03:33)

Model: Claude Opus 4.5 · Target: 500 words

Notion Page: https://www.notion.so/Notes-for-Early-Indicators-23b1a29f178980e7bb3af34c093d0b45

Summary (from 38,445 words)

Resources (16 fetched, 11 errors)

Type URL / Title Status Size Words Files
notion https://www.notion.so/Notes-for-Early-Indicators-23b1a29f178...
Notes for Early Indicators
fetched 18.4 KB 2,947 Raw / Text
tweet https://x.com/StringChaos/status/1928476388274716707
Tweet by Naman Jain
fetched 359 B 38 Raw / Text
tweet https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1900218546904293863
Tweet by Siméon
fetched 350 B 54 Raw / Text
webpage https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-says-business... error - - - / -
webpage https://mikelovesrobots.substack.com/p/wheres-the-shovelware...
Where's the Shovelware? Why AI Coding Claims Don't Add Up
fetched 236.1 KB 2,296 Raw / Text
tweet https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1956514153528742168?t=qJkEFl...
Tweet by Siméon
fetched 326 B 49 Raw / Text
notion https://www.notion.so/26b4c916374a807eac83c7b05859c488
Will there be a bubble pop? / Economics of AI
fetched 30.3 KB 4,320 Raw / Text
webpage https://docs.google.com/document/d/1w4kTK2dGZZInmjuaT5_UG5gY... error - - - / -
webpage /2381a29f178980eda6c1d137ccc01aac#2471a29f178980878a29c548b6... error - - - / -
webpage /2551a29f178980188ce6fd8bb09a566e#2551a29f178980c1914bf155bc... error - - - / -
webpage https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499
[2503.14499] Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks
fetched 49.5 KB 876 Raw / Text
webpage https://amistrongeryet.substack.com/p/where-ai-falls-short
If AGI Means Everything People Do... What is it That People Do?
fetched 209.1 KB 2,927 Raw / Text
webpage https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKAFFvaouKKEhbBPm/a-bear-cas...
A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress — LessWrong
fetched 2.9 MB 10,000 (truncated) Raw / Text
webpage /2294c916374a8083a6f1fdf0e4674ecc error - - - / -
webpage https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NE00dsr6MtrJiZ1o5pepCTO2... error - - - / -
webpage https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/132hNhKM5Ar08Z6gEaR5X... error - - - / -
webpage https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1iCpRc2NDctmWkB6g2fNH... error - - - / -
webpage https://docs.google.com/document/d/13HGS14U9fhvUhmksyQyZkXap... error - - - / -
webpage https://t.co/dq7NJyXkNk
JavaScript is not available.
fetched 225.5 KB 29 Raw / Text
tweet https://x.com/arcprize/status/1965465501079142814?t=L7y6E9f9...
Tweet by ARC Prize
fetched 326 B 43 Raw / Text
webpage https://epochai.substack.com/p/after-the-chatgpt-moment-meas...
After the ChatGPT Moment: Measuring AI’s Adoption
fetched 298.4 KB 2,922 Raw / Text
webpage https://globaldialogues.ai/cadence/march-2025
Global Dialogues
fetched 114.7 KB 722 Raw / Text
tweet https://x.com/cherylwoooo/status/1929348520370417704?t=f9E9Y...
Tweet by Cheryl Wu
fetched 245 B 40 Raw / Text
webpage https://asteriskmag.com/issues/10/does-ai-progress-have-a-sp...
Does AI Progress Have a Speed Limit?—Asterisk
fetched 60.9 KB 5,805 Raw / Text
webpage https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lvcfeZBehflx2BDXvLD7... error - - - / -
webpage https://metr.substack.com/p/2025-07-14-how-does-time-horizon...
How Does Time Horizon Vary Across Domains? - METR
fetched 312.4 KB 5,210 Raw / Text
webpage https://docs.google.com/document/d/115YVucVLdzPoXkoKdywyDzLa... error - - - / -

Not Explored (21)

Type URL / Preview Note
tweet https://x.com/StringChaos/status/19284763882747167...
Can SWE-Agents aid in High-Performance Software development? ⚡️🤔 Introducing GSO: A Challenging Co...
links not explored
tweet https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/190021854690429386...
If an LLM scores 40% on Cybench, what does that tell you about its ability to help in a real-world a...
links not explored
web https://mikelovesrobots.substack.com/p/wheres-the-...
Where's the Shovelware? Why AI Coding Claims Don't Add Up
links not explored
tweet https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/195651415352874216...
I've entertained that theory for a few years and have been confused since then why people expected c...
links not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/document/d/1w4kTK2dGZZInmj...
Google Doc
content not explored
web https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499
[2503.14499] Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks
links not explored
web https://amistrongeryet.substack.com/p/where-ai-fal...
If AGI Means Everything People Do... What is it That People Do?
links not explored
web https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKAFFvaouKKEhbBPm/...
A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress — LessWrong
links not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NE00dsr6MtrJiZ...
Google Doc
content not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/132hNhKM5Ar...
Google Doc
content not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1iCpRc2NDct...
Google Doc
content not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/document/d/13HGS14U9fhvUhm...
Google Doc
content not explored
web https://t.co/dq7NJyXkNk
JavaScript is not available.
links not explored
tweet https://x.com/arcprize/status/1965465501079142814?...
ARC Prize Foundation @ MIT We're hosting an evening with top researchers to explore measuring sampl...
links not explored
web https://epochai.substack.com/p/after-the-chatgpt-m...
After the ChatGPT Moment: Measuring AI’s Adoption
links not explored
web https://globaldialogues.ai/cadence/march-2025
Global Dialogues
links not explored
tweet https://x.com/cherylwoooo/status/19293485203704177...
Are we at the cusp of recursive self-improvement to ASI? This tends to be the core force behind shor...
links not explored
web https://asteriskmag.com/issues/10/does-ai-progress...
Does AI Progress Have a Speed Limit?—Asterisk
links not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lvcfeZBehf...
Google Doc
content not explored
web https://metr.substack.com/p/2025-07-14-how-does-ti...
How Does Time Horizon Vary Across Domains? - METR
links not explored
gdoc https://docs.google.com/document/d/115YVucVLdzPoXk...
Google Doc
content not explored

Problems (5)

Raw Files

Execution Log

[2026-01-08T22:12:25.092Z] Starting step: fetch_notion_page (attempt 1)
[2026-01-08T22:12:25.123Z] Fetching Notion page: 23b1a29f178980e7bb3af34c093d0b45
[2026-01-08T22:12:25.153Z] Configured 2 API keys (lengths: 50, 50)
[2026-01-08T22:12:25.403Z] API key 1 failed with object_not_found, trying key 2...
[2026-01-08T22:12:25.601Z] Error in step fetch_notion_page: Notion API error: object_not_found - Could not find page with ID: 23b1a29f-1789-80e7-bb3a-f34c093d0b45. Make sure the relevant pages and databases are shared with your integration.
NotionApiErrorWithDetails: Notion API error: object_not_found - Could not find page with ID: 23b1a29f-1789-80e7-bb3a-f34c093d0b45. Make sure the relevant pages and databases are shared with your integration.
    at fetchPage (index.js:6871:11)
    at async fetchPageWithMultipleKeys (index.js:6880:20)
    at async fetchNotionPageStage (index.js:7251:30)
    at async processQueueMessage (index.js:8953:20)
    at async Object.queue (index.js:9053:9)
[2026-01-08T22:12:25.640Z] Scheduling retry in 10s (attempt 2)
[2026-01-08T22:12:39.947Z] Starting step: fetch_notion_page (attempt 2)
[2026-01-08T22:12:39.978Z] Fetching Notion page: 23b1a29f178980e7bb3af34c093d0b45
[2026-01-08T22:12:40.014Z] Configured 2 API keys (lengths: 50, 50)
[2026-01-08T22:12:40.119Z] API key 1 failed with object_not_found, trying key 2...
[2026-01-08T22:12:40.302Z] Error in step fetch_notion_page: Notion API error: object_not_found - Could not find page with ID: 23b1a29f-1789-80e7-bb3a-f34c093d0b45. Make sure the relevant pages and databases are shared with your integration.
NotionApiErrorWithDetails: Notion API error: object_not_found - Could not find page with ID: 23b1a29f-1789-80e7-bb3a-f34c093d0b45. Make sure the relevant pages and databases are shared with your integration.
    at fetchPage (index.js:6871:11)
    at async fetchPageWithMultipleKeys (index.js:6880:20)
    at async fetchNotionPageStage (index.js:7251:30)
    at async processQueueMessage (index.js:8953:20)
    at async Object.queue (index.js:9053:9)
[2026-01-08T22:12:40.337Z] Scheduling retry in 30s (attempt 3)
[2026-01-08T22:13:14.625Z] Starting step: fetch_notion_page (attempt 3)
[2026-01-08T22:13:14.659Z] Fetching Notion page: 23b1a29f178980e7bb3af34c093d0b45
[2026-01-08T22:13:14.710Z] Configured 2 API keys (lengths: 50, 50)
[2026-01-08T22:13:14.853Z] API key 1 failed with object_not_found, trying key 2...
[2026-01-08T22:13:15.033Z] Error in step fetch_notion_page: Notion API error: object_not_found - Could not find page with ID: 23b1a29f-1789-80e7-bb3a-f34c093d0b45. Make sure the relevant pages and databases are shared with your integration.
NotionApiErrorWithDetails: Notion API error: object_not_found - Could not find page with ID: 23b1a29f-1789-80e7-bb3a-f34c093d0b45. Make sure the relevant pages and databases are shared with your integration.
    at fetchPage (index.js:6871:11)
    at async fetchPageWithMultipleKeys (index.js:6880:20)
    at async fetchNotionPageStage (index.js:7251:30)
    at async processQueueMessage (index.js:8953:20)
    at async Object.queue (index.js:9053:9)
[2026-01-08T22:13:15.065Z] Scheduling retry in 90s (attempt 4)
[2026-01-08T22:14:48.344Z] Starting step: fetch_notion_page (attempt 4)
[2026-01-08T22:14:48.376Z] Fetching Notion page: 23b1a29f178980e7bb3af34c093d0b45
[2026-01-08T22:14:48.412Z] Configured 2 API keys (lengths: 50, 50)
[2026-01-08T22:14:48.566Z] API key 1 failed with object_not_found, trying key 2...
[2026-01-08T22:14:48.699Z] Page title: Notes for Early Indicators (using API key 2)
[2026-01-08T22:14:56.114Z] Fetched 132 blocks
[2026-01-08T22:14:56.147Z] Found 26 outbound links
[2026-01-08T22:14:56.518Z] Created 27 resources (1 fetched, 26 pending)
[2026-01-08T22:14:56.552Z] Completed step: fetch_notion_page in 8176ms
[2026-01-08T22:14:58.994Z] Starting step: fetch_resources (attempt 1)
[2026-01-08T22:14:59.081Z] Fetching batch of 10 resources (10 pending, 0 retrying)
[2026-01-08T22:14:59.115Z] Fetching tweet: https://x.com/StringChaos/status/1928476388274716707...
[2026-01-08T22:14:59.457Z] Fetching tweet: https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1900218546904293863...
[2026-01-08T22:14:59.950Z] Fetching webpage: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-says-business-will-burn-115-billi...
[2026-01-08T22:14:59.991Z] Fetching webpage: https://mikelovesrobots.substack.com/p/wheres-the-shovelware-why-ai-coding...
[2026-01-08T22:15:00.373Z] Fetching tweet: https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1956514153528742168?t=qJkEFlWoQAD6z6g4HMhNAw&s=0...
[2026-01-08T22:15:00.755Z] Fetching notion: https://www.notion.so/26b4c916374a807eac83c7b05859c488...
[2026-01-08T22:15:18.935Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1w4kTK2dGZZInmjuaT5_UG5gYhVrx2yvR-5GAX_ai0iA/...
[2026-01-08T22:15:18.977Z] Fetching webpage: /2381a29f178980eda6c1d137ccc01aac#2471a29f178980878a29c548b6409c1f...
[2026-01-08T22:15:19.012Z] Fetching webpage: /2551a29f178980188ce6fd8bb09a566e#2551a29f178980c1914bf155bc912b0f...
[2026-01-08T22:15:19.054Z] Fetching webpage: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499...
[2026-01-08T22:15:19.398Z] Batch complete, 16 resources still pending
[2026-01-08T22:15:19.440Z] Completed step: fetch_resources in 20382ms
[2026-01-08T22:15:19.525Z] Re-queuing step: fetch_resources for next batch
[2026-01-08T22:15:19.676Z] Starting step: fetch_resources (attempt 1)
[2026-01-08T22:15:19.734Z] Fetching batch of 10 resources (10 pending, 0 retrying)
[2026-01-08T22:15:19.772Z] Fetching webpage: https://amistrongeryet.substack.com/p/where-ai-falls-short...
[2026-01-08T22:15:20.065Z] Fetching webpage: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKAFFvaouKKEhbBPm/a-bear-case-my-predictions-reg...
[2026-01-08T22:15:22.761Z] Fetching webpage: /2294c916374a8083a6f1fdf0e4674ecc...
[2026-01-08T22:15:22.796Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NE00dsr6MtrJiZ1o5pepCTO28hfDKDohBYCXDLtOTs4/...
[2026-01-08T22:15:22.829Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/132hNhKM5Ar08Z6gEaR5XA6lVy-VvgAgaQ_ZYYy7Y...
[2026-01-08T22:15:22.866Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1iCpRc2NDctmWkB6g2fNHkwVvHkaUKwES6lRLujSV...
[2026-01-08T22:15:22.903Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/document/d/13HGS14U9fhvUhmksyQyZkXapoWHN_zPrEeArgAhs6P0/...
[2026-01-08T22:15:22.943Z] Fetching webpage: https://t.co/dq7NJyXkNk...
[2026-01-08T22:15:23.424Z] Fetching tweet: https://x.com/arcprize/status/1965465501079142814?t=L7y6E9f9cwxgjwWD1FMZJA&s=03...
[2026-01-08T22:15:23.830Z] Fetching webpage: https://epochai.substack.com/p/after-the-chatgpt-moment-measuring...
[2026-01-08T22:15:24.219Z] Batch complete, 6 resources still pending
[2026-01-08T22:15:24.270Z] Completed step: fetch_resources in 4561ms
[2026-01-08T22:15:24.375Z] Re-queuing step: fetch_resources for next batch
[2026-01-08T22:15:24.605Z] Starting step: fetch_resources (attempt 1)
[2026-01-08T22:15:24.667Z] Fetching batch of 6 resources (6 pending, 0 retrying)
[2026-01-08T22:15:24.702Z] Fetching webpage: https://globaldialogues.ai/cadence/march-2025...
[2026-01-08T22:15:25.990Z] Fetching tweet: https://x.com/cherylwoooo/status/1929348520370417704?t=f9E9Yty2m27EQ-Z_NbbJ3Q&s=...
[2026-01-08T22:15:26.404Z] Fetching webpage: https://asteriskmag.com/issues/10/does-ai-progress-have-a-speed-limit...
[2026-01-08T22:15:26.700Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lvcfeZBehflx2BDXvLD7AzreM_qGzZx3SgL-qHvq...
[2026-01-08T22:15:26.734Z] Fetching webpage: https://metr.substack.com/p/2025-07-14-how-does-time-horizon-vary-across-domains...
[2026-01-08T22:15:27.028Z] Fetching webpage: https://docs.google.com/document/d/115YVucVLdzPoXkoKdywyDzLanSQEWJ3POEPb_FLxFs4/...
[2026-01-08T22:15:27.063Z] All resources fetched
[2026-01-08T22:15:27.098Z] Completed step: fetch_resources in 2458ms
[2026-01-08T22:15:27.333Z] Starting step: summarize (attempt 1)
[2026-01-08T22:15:27.390Z] Collecting text from 27 resources
[2026-01-08T22:15:28.798Z] Combined text: 38445 words from 16 resources
[2026-01-08T22:15:29.262Z] Calling claude-opus-4-5-20251101 for 500-word summary (238703 chars input)
[2026-01-08T22:15:55.488Z] Summary generated: 533 words (58156 input tokens, 760 output tokens)
[2026-01-08T22:15:55.523Z] Completed step: summarize in 28155ms
[2026-01-08T22:15:55.662Z] Job completed successfully

LLM Invocations (Total: $0.3098)

Time Purpose Model Duration Outcome Input Output Cost
02:15 PM Generate summaries claude-opus-4-5-20251101 25.9s Success Input (58,156) Output (760) $0.3098

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